Update: ‘Tesla Model 2 battery’ and ‘Tesla Model 2 release date’ sections updated.
Tesla is working on a $25,000 EV to slot below the Tesla Model 3 that would become its new entry-level model, making it a Tesla for everyone, well, almost everyone. As depicted in these renders from SugarDesign (Instagram: sugardesign_1), it could be a compact hatchback.
There are various speculations about the name of the USD 25,000 Tesla EV, and the most common one is Tesla Model 2. However, Tesla co-founder and CEO Elon Musk has poured cold water over this rumour, confirming that there’s no such car on the roadmap. Addressing investors and analysts at the company’s 2021 annual shareholder meeting on October 8, 2021, Musk said:
Model 2 is not a car. There’s no Model 2.Elon Musk, co-founder and CEO, Tesla (2021 annual shareholder meeting)
For this article to be discoverable by search engines and for the benefit of those who are yet to get the memo on the name, we’ll call the future Tesla launch as the Model 2 a bit longer. We will gradually update it as we receive more information and change over when the car gets a new name! That the ‘Tesla Model Q’ is the name of the USD 25,000 Tesla model is already churning in the rumormill.
Tesla Model 2 platform & production
ElectricVehicleWeb has seen an Environmental Impact Assessment document about the expansion of the Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai that was released in February 2021. The project name reads: “The second phase of the Tesla Gigafactory Project (Phase I).” It says that after completion of the project, “the production capacity of Model 3, Model Y, and related derivative models will be added.”
The document mentioning “related derivative models” whipped up rumors on the web that the $25,000 Tesla car will be based on the same platform as the Model 3 and Model Y. It is speculated that it could be a smaller, hatchback version of the Model 3.
Another possibility, one that we feel has more substance, is that Tesla builds the Model 2 on a newly developed modular platform, which offers a lot of flexibility and cost savings like Volkswagen Group’s MEB. The same set of components like motors, power electronics, suspensions, brakes, etc., could be used on multiple low-cost models/variants built on this scalable platform.
On 30 July 2021, citing a post from Weibo user 不是郑小康, Twitter user Ray4Tesla said that the prototype of the upcoming entry-level Tesla is complete and the future model’s trial production (where a small volume of cars are made for testing and clinics) will begin at the end of 2021. Ray4Tesla said that the Weibo user has a record of releasing true leaks. Below is what the Weibo post said (Google translate):
Model next gen(:) It’s not a smoke bomb. Most of the suppliers have been negotiated, and they will be small-scale by the end of the year, but they are not disclosed.Weibo user 不是郑小康
During the Q1 2021 earnings conference call Musk suggested that the development work of the base car is progressing. “We are continuing to ramp production of Model Y in Fremont and Shanghai. In the background, we’re continuing work — development work on the Semi, Cybertruck, the Roadster and other products,” Elon Musk said.
Tesla entry-level car to be compelling
At the 2020 Annual Shareholder Meeting and Battery Day, Tesla confirmed two new electric cars. The first Tesla electric car would make the brand more accessible with a lower-than-ever price tag of $25000.
In its presentation, Tesla revealed plans to launch a compact Tesla electric car and a Tesla Robotaxi. These new Tesla cars would be smaller than the Model 3, currently the smallest and most affordable Tesla EV. Below is what Musk said about the new entry-level electric car:
We are confident that in the long term we can design and manufacture a compelling $25000 electric vehicle. This has always been our dream from the beginning of the company.Elon Musk, co-founder and CEO, Tesla
No pedals, no steering
In 2021, Tesla made the Model S way more futuristic than rivals by fitting it with a yoke-style steering wheel. The company is considering a radical departure for the Model 2, one with no steering and pedals, Twitter user and Tesla tracker Sawyer Merritt said, citing a Musk meeting. Maybe Tesla will make such an interior a reality in the second half of the decade in the fully autonomous, SAE Level-5 Model 2 robotaxis.
Tesla Model 2 battery
Tesla is taking a diversified cathode approach for electric vehicles. The company already sells the Model 3 with a CATL Lithium Iron Phosphate battery pack for China. It plans to offer the entry-level car also with an Iron-based battery pack. This would lead to not just the lower cost of the battery pack but the easy availability of the same and thus fewer supply constraints compared to battery packs with Nickel, if at all.
In order to scale, we really need to make sure that we are not constrained by total Nickel availability. I actually spoke with the CEOs, the biggest mining companies in the world, and said please make more Nickel because it’s very important. And, so, I think they are gonna make more Nickel. I think we need to have a kind of a three-tiered approach to batteries. So, starting with Iron that’s kind of like a medium-range, and then Nickel-Manganese that’s sort of a medium-plus/intermediate, and then high-Nickel for long-range applications like Cybertruck and the Semi.Elon Musk, co-founder and CEO, Tesla
Analysts believe that Tesla’s new 4680 battery cells will be key to releasing the $25,000 EV. Considerably cheaper to manufacture and much more powerful as well, 4680 battery cells should make it to production by the end of the year. “I think we still feel quite optimistic about this achieving volume production of the 4680 next year,” Musk said during the Q1 2021 Earnings Conference Call. “It appears as though we’re about 12, probably not more than 18 months away from volume production of the 4680,” he said. Tesla’s new 4680 cells are claimed to offer five times the energy density and six times the power of the company’s previous cells.
Seeing how supply chain issues can cripple vehicle production, Tesla plans to spread the production of the 4680-format cells across continents. Musk said at the 2021 annual shareholder meeting that the company will manufacture them at a facility near the Fremont vehicle assembly plant in the U.S. The North American factory “will be able to make more than enough cells for Giga Texas to scale production of Model Y,” he said. European and Asian production is also likely at a later stage.
The nice thing is like having at least a factory in Europe and a factory in China, a factory in North America or at least have factories where – for our high-volume products – where they’re on the continent where most of our customers are.Elon Musk, co-founder and CEO, Tesla (2021 shareholder meeting)
Andrew Baglino, Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering, Tesla, gave an update about 4680 cell production during the Q4 2021 and full year 2021 earnings conference call. He said that the company will likely start selling its first vehicles fitted with the 4680 cells by March.
We are making meaningful progress of the ramp curve in Kato. We’re building 4680 structural packs every day, which are being assembled into vehicles in Texas. I was driving one yesterday and the day before. And we believe our first 4680 vehicles will be delivered this quarter.Andrew Baglino, Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering, Tesla (Q4 2021 and full year 2021 earnings conference call on January 26, 2022)
Kato is near Tesla’s Fremont factory, but its Austin plant will likely manufacture its first model with 4680 cells. Work to build the first EV with the new cells at the Texas vehicle production facility is progressing well.
Our focus on the cell, the pack and the vehicles here is driving yield quality and cost to ensure we’re ready for larger volumes this year as we ramp and next year. And the 4680 and pack tool installations here at Giga Austin are progressing well with some areas producing first parts.Andrew Baglino, Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering, Tesla (Q4 2021 and full year 2021 earnings conference call on January 26, 2022)
BYD Battery for the Tesla Model 2?
Another speculation, a more recent one, is that Tesla will use the “ultra-safe” BYD Blade battery with LFP cells in the Model 2. BYD is already conducting C-sample testing of these Blade batteries, and it will begin supplying them in Q2 2022 (April-June 2022), as per a report from Financial Associated Press.
A more recent report from Financial Associated Press says that Tesla has ordered 10 GWh worth of battery packs from BYD. Should those be battery packs with an energy content of approximately 50 kWh, that’d convert to around 200,000 units. Officially, neither Tesla nor BYD has confirmed if they have partnered for battery packs or even discussed any such contract.
BYD says that its Blade batteries with LFP cells can last till 1.2 million km (nearly 750,000 miles) after 3,000 cycles of charging/discharging. However, safety, not longevity, is the USP. In a nail-penetration test, the Blade Battery didn’t emit smoke or fire, and its surface temperature didn’t get extremely hot, staying between 30 and 60 degrees Celsius. As for the range, in the BYD Tang, the BYD Blade battery provides a range (NEDC) of 505 km (314 miles). BYD makes the Blade batteries in Chongqing, China.
Musk hinted at the so-called Tesla Model 2 back in July 2020
Musk said during the Q2 2020 earnings call that it is reasonable to assume that the company “would make a compact vehicle of some kind” in the future. However, he indicated that such a product, if given the green signal, is still a few years away from going on sale and the Cybertruck, Roadster, and Semi are the company’s next new projects.
The fact that Tesla electric cars still aren’t affordable enough is troubling Musk, and he acknowledged that is something needing a fix. One example is the Tesla Model 3’s cheaper iron phosphate battery pack in China, as stated above. One can expect Tesla to take several similar measures to bring down the price of its car range.
I do not think we lack for desire for our product, but we do lack for affordability. And so we have to improve the affordability of our products so they are not out of reach of people. We want to bring them more in reach over time but also improve our cost of production.Elon Musk, co-founder and CEO, Tesla (Q3 2020 Earnings Conference Call)
Tesla Model 2 in Europe & UK
As per Autocar UK, the new electric car from Tesla is expected to be priced starting at around £20,000. At this price, it is eyeing popular all-electric models like the Nissan Leaf, VW ID.3, and the Kia e-Niro. Currently, the Tesla Model 3 sedan retails at £40,990 in the UK, so the arrival of this new compact electric car would truly democratize EVs. Tesla’s new batteries should offer a driving range of at least 250 miles (402.3 km) for the upcoming entry-level car.
Priced under EUR 25,000, the new Tesla Model 2 will also rival the production version of Renault 5 and Renault 4 models in Europe. Renault has already confirmed that the production Renault 5 will deliver a range of 249 km (400 km, WLTP cycle) and will arrive in early 2024. To be available with a single motor drive, the Renault 5 would have a starting price tag around EUR 21,000, a third lower than the Zoe.
China R&D Center
Tesla has completed its first research centre outside the United States. Located in Shanghai, China, just like its first overseas vehicle plant, this facility will carry out original development work around complete vehicles, charging equipment, and energy products.
The first model Tesla works on at the Chinese R&D centre, officially called Tesla Shanghai R&D and Innovation Centre, should be the USD 25,000 compact EV. Vehicle development at this facility will work on software, materials, electronics, and various other aspects of vehicle development. Tesla has built a data centre to store Chinese customer data locally as well, called Tesla Shanghai Super Factory Data Centre.
Tesla Model 2 release date
Tesla hasn’t disclosed when it plans to put its USD 25,000 EV on sale. The company is already running behind schedule with the release of the Cybertruck, next-gen Roadster, and Semi, so we think it won’t be anytime soon. Don’t expect customer deliveries to begin before 2024. During the Q4 2021 and full year 2021 earnings conference call, Musk indicated there’s no plan to launch or even unveil the USD 25,000 Tesla in the near future.
Well, we’re not currently working on our $25,000 car. At some point, we will, but we have enough on our plate right now, too much on our plate, frankly. So, at some point, there will be. But I think that’s sort of a question that — it’s sort of the wrong question. Really, it’s really the thing that overwhelmingly matters is when is the car autonomous? I think, at the point in which it is autonomous, the cost of transport drops by, I don’t know, a factor of 4 or 5.Elon Musk, co-founder and CEO, Tesla (Q4 2021 and full year 2021 earnings conference call on January 26, 2022)
Musk had suggested that Tesla won’t skimp on the $25k electric car when it comes to the best of its driving assistance technologies. He had confirmed in 2020 that even the basic Tesla electric car would offer hands-free, autonomous driving. Below were his words:
I think probably in about three years from now, we are confident we can make a very compelling $25000 electric vehicle that’s also fully autonomous.Elon Musk, co-founder and CEO, Tesla, in September 2020
Achieving the USD 25,000 target price won’t be easy, but Tesla is bullish on realizing the dream. In addition to lowering the cost of batteries by switching to LFP chemistry, it is considering several other measures for cost reduction on the vehicle side. During the Q1 2021 earnings conference call, Zachary Kirkhorn, CFO, Tesla, said:
Obviously, building a car like a Model S is quite complex and has various moving parts. Model 3 and Model Y were steps of improvement in that. But when you look at some of the other advancements that we are including in the Model Y, factories into Austin and Berlin, we have reduced the body pound by as much as 60%. And the part costs money.Zachary Kirkhorn, CFO, Tesla
Kirkhorn suggested that building the USD 25,000 Tesla in higher volumes should help achieve greater economies of scale compared to bigger Teslas. The company is considering manufacturing its most affordable car in four factories around the world.
Tesla has four models on sale – Model S, Model X, Model Y, and Model 3. It has showcased the new Roadster, Semi Truck, and Cybertruck. All models, including the USD 25,000 car, were estimated to meet production by the end of 2023, but supply chain issues and the pandemic have affected timelines.
Featured Image Source: Instagram/sugardesign_1